Source: ISW
Details: The report highlights that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's efforts to showcase the technical specifications of the missile are part of a broader information campaign.
The ISW believes that emphasizing the missile's range and payload, while comparing its destructive capabilities to those of a meteor, aims to intimidate Ukraine and the West, distracting Kyiv from launching further strikes on Russian territory using Western systems.
Quote: "Even Putin's threats to strike at 'decision-making centers' in Kyiv are empty, as Russian forces regularly attack civilian and critical infrastructure in Kyiv using drones and missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads."
Details: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky summarized this fact on November 29 in response to Putin's statements at the CSTO security council meeting in Kazakhstan, asserting that "Putin wants to add thousands to the thousands of missiles that have already been launched at Ukraine."
Reuters, citing five sources close to American intelligence, noted on November 27 that the "Oreshnik" strike on November 21 did not change U.S. intelligence assessments that the Kremlin is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, even in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory using Western weaponry.
Quote: "Thus, Putin's constant boasting about 'Oreshnik' and Russia's missile capabilities remains part of a reflexive control information operation by the Kremlin and is unlikely to herald the development of new Russian means for deep strikes."
Key Conclusions:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to boast about the technical characteristics of the recently launched "Oreshnik" ballistic missile and threatens new strikes with "Oreshniks" against Ukraine as part of an intensified Russian information campaign aimed at coercing the West and Ukraine into restraint.
- The capabilities of the "Oreshnik" missile are not particularly new. American and Ukrainian officials noted that the "Oreshnik" missile does not signal a Russian escalation in the war. Therefore, Putin's ongoing praise of the "Oreshnik" missile and Russia's missile potential remains part of a controlled information campaign by the Kremlin and is unlikely to indicate the development of new Russian means for deep strikes.
- Russian military officials are considering establishing a separate unit for drone systems, likely within the Russian Ministry of Defense, in a belated attempt to catch up with the creation of Ukrainian Drone Forces established in February 2024.
- On the nights of November 27-28 and 28-29, Russian troops conducted a massive series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine's energy system and key defense industry facilities.
- Ukrainian forces struck four Russian air defense systems and radars in the occupied territories of Ukraine and two oil depots in Russia on November 28 and 29.
- In November, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov made an unannounced visit to North Korea's capital, Pyongyang.