Source: ISW
Details: Reports indicate that Russian officials are attempting to restrict local bloggers who report on the current frontline situation in the Kursk region, likely in response to concerns that the West may pressure Russia to exchange its territory for the Ukrainian territories it occupies.
Several Russian bloggers, known for their regular criticism of the Russian military's conduct of the war in Ukraine, stated on February 10 and 11 that unnamed individuals are urging Russian authorities to accuse bloggers of discrediting the Russian military after they reported on the recent advances of Ukrainian troops southeast of Sudzha.
The bloggers claimed that the Russian military command is targeting them for publishing information about successful Ukrainian attacks near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka, with one blogger asserting that recent Ukrainian offensives forced the Russian military command to postpone plans for a future offensive operation in that area.
Verbatim ISW: "The latest claim suggests that the Russian military command may have planned to conduct an offensive operation aimed at capturing Sudzha, a crucial gas transportation hub and the main city controlled by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region."
Details: Analysts note that the Russian military seems increasingly eager to tighten control over the narratives regarding the situation in the Kursk region, as Zelensky continues to express intentions to utilize Russian territory in future peace negotiations.
In an interview with The Guardian, Zelensky stated that he intends to use the territory controlled by Ukraine in the Kursk region to facilitate the return of Ukrainian lands occupied by Russia during future peace talks with Russia.
Zelensky emphasized the importance of reclaiming all occupied Ukrainian territory and did not specify which particular areas he might consider exchanging for Russian territory.
Experts suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely aims to push Ukrainian defense forces out of the Kursk region or at least from Sudzha before peace negotiations commence, to avoid the need to exchange occupied Ukrainian territory for Russian land.
Key takeaways from ISW on February 11:
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reaffirmed Ukraine's commitment to good-faith peace negotiations with Russia and highlighted the critical importance of U.S. military aid for Ukraine's security.
- Reports indicate that Russian officials are attempting to limit access for Russian bloggers to reports on the current frontline situation in the Kursk region, likely in response to fears that the West may pressure Russia to exchange its territory for occupied Ukrainian land.
- On the night of February 10-11, Ukrainian forces struck a refinery and reportedly hit the Engels airbase in the Saratov region.
- The Kremlin may be creating informational pretexts for potential false flag attacks in the Baltic Sea and against Russian opposition politicians living abroad, aimed at discrediting Ukraine.
- Ukrainian troops advanced near Toretsk.
- Russian troops made gains around Borovaya, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, Velyka Novosilka, and Huliaipole.
- Regional authorities in Russia are reportedly reducing payments to soldiers with minor injuries due to budget shortfalls.