Europe is stunned by Trump and his associates. What Plan B for Ukraine is being discussed in Munich? - Yaroslav Zharenov

At the conference in Munich, discussions are not only focused on Ukraine's future, but also represent an attempt to establish a new order in Europe. Donald Trump's conversation with Vladimir Putin has completely changed the landscape. As is known, European partners were unaware of Trump's plans to speak with Putin, and many perceived the outcome of the conversation as a blatant betrayal of Ukraine and an attempt to reintegrate Russia into the community of civilized nations.

Returning to Munich, an overwhelming amount of statements, "insider" information, and interpretations have emerged over the past week, making it quite challenging to navigate through them. During the MSC-2025, there was an opportunity to engage not only with the Ukrainian delegation but also with some of our partners. I will briefly convey the emotions and sentiments that are currently swirling here.

Firstly, the speech by U.S. Vice President JD Vance was highly anticipated. He was expected to outline the long-term security plans of the U.S. that would be implemented by the Trump administration. And DJ Vance, as he is jokingly referred to, threw the world a hellish party with a cold shower. The high-ranking audience hardly applauded, and the room was frankly shocked – Europe was being trampled on live air.

Secondly, the specter of imminent negotiations seems to be fading away. Western media is publishing one leak after another — allegedly, the U.S. offered Zelensky to sign a document granting the U.S. rights to half of Ukraine's future mineral resources, but he refused. By the time of publication, this information could neither be confirmed nor denied.

Simultaneously, Bloomberg published an article suggesting that Putin is supposedly gathering a team of "heavyweights" for negotiations to end the war. The negotiating trio includes Yuri Ushakov, the Russian dictator's foreign policy advisor, Sergey Naryshkin, the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, and a certain Kirill Dmitriev. The latter has close ties to Putin's daughter, Ekaterina Tikhonova, and moreover, he has previously negotiated with Trump's team (during his prior term). This information may appear credible, as Naryshkin and Ushakov have been involved in complex negotiation processes for the Kremlin for decades.

From our side, it is evident that individuals from Vladimir Zelensky's inner circle will be involved in the negotiation track. In particular, Andriy Yermak, Andriy Sibiga, and others. Moreover, it can be stated that the first crisis related to Trump's conversation with Putin has been overcome. European leaders are declaring one after another their readiness to support Ukraine, and with varying degrees of understanding and fear, they agree that the security issues of Europe will evidently have to be guaranteed by Europeans themselves (including Ukraine).

Thirdly, despite the flood of statements of varying significance (from the positioning of foreign contingents to the transfer of nuclear weapons from the U.S.), Zelensky and his team have begun to promote a new model of security guarantees – a robust Ukrainian army of 1.5 million and a closed sky over our territory. Kyiv proposes to pay for this to our partners. Zelensky has returned to this model several times, emphasizing Ukraine's important role in Europe’s security.

As for the long-term interests of the U.S. and Ukraine in European security, however strange it may sound, they may align. Trump, both in 2016 and during this term, has declared that the security of Europe is Europe's responsibility. EU countries need to spend more, and Americans should not bear the costs of ensuring the peaceful sleep of EU residents. Despite the fact that there are currently no clear resources or means to implement this scenario, Europe will have to wake up. This involves an increasing number of European leaders and representatives of the elite.

It is symptomatic that Frank-Walter Steinmeier delivered a rather firm message. The President of Germany urged (European leaders) "not to behave like deer caught in headlights." "We are subjects, not objects in the international order. We must not allow ourselves to be paralyzed by a flood of announcements," Steinmeier said in Munich. Yes, yes, this is the same Steinmeier who once promoted a deadly federalization formula for Ukraine with a special status for Donbas. In response to Vance's harsh statements, Europe is demonstrating that it deserves respect. And not as a junior partner, but as a fully-fledged one.

Regarding Ukraine's partnership with Europeans, there is a long road ahead, but it is already clear that the U.S. position will not be as categorical as Trump would like. Washington currently has no plan for ending the war. There are separate proposals and ideas that have yet to coalesce into a coherent puzzle. They have not yet come together partly because the concessions from Kyiv are evident; they are on the table — a temporary refusal of NATO membership, fixation of the front line without recognizing Russian sovereignty over the occupied territories, and so on. However, there is no such clarity regarding Russian concessions. European partners point this out as well.

In summary: it is too early to bury Ukraine, but no one is rushing to jump into the grave either. A cold shower for Europe may even help us in the medium term, as it will compel Europeans to take their own security more seriously and recognize the role of the strong Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, it is evident that the absence of a swift peace will prompt Trump to become more involved in strengthening Ukraine. Here, Zelensky is declaring an appealing strategy for the U.S.: those partners who helped Ukraine withstand should be the ones to invest in its economy post-war (and vice versa). U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that Trump plans to integrate Ukraine's economy with that of the U.S., particularly involving strategic sectors — energy, minerals, and state enterprises.

Munich continues. And so does our struggle. The plan to quickly agree on an upcoming end to the war without the participation of Ukraine and the EU has failed. It will not be easy, it will be hard, but we are not alone.