"Iran and Russia emerged as the biggest losers in Syria," stated Igor Semivolos.

Today in Syria, we are witnessing a unique process – the emergence of a new Syrian nation from the ashes of civil war. It can be stated that the regime of the Assad family, which has ruled Syria for decades, has fallen. This remarkable event will undoubtedly have powerful geopolitical consequences for the entire region and may lead to a so-called "domino effect." However, it is important to note that the scenario of external expansion into neighboring Arab countries, which pro-Russian experts warn about, is unlikely to occur. Several factors work against such a scenario.

First and foremost, the Syrian people are exhausted from years of war and are eager to end it as soon as possible. The devastated economy and infrastructure require significant efforts for recovery, which is impossible amid ongoing conflict. The political leaders of the rebels recognize that the period of euphoria will pass quickly, and without an effective transitional government that is recognized by the world, it will be impossible to hold new elections that ensure legitimate power.

Simultaneously, a large-scale domestic political negotiation process must begin to determine the future territorial arrangement of Syria and seek compromises among various factions. It’s no secret that representatives of different groups have differing views on the future political structure, the role of religion, and the rights of minorities—this all requires negotiations and quick agreements. There are certain foundations for this; one of the success factors for "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" was the successful agreements made by their leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani with representatives of other ethnic and confessional groups and tribal sheikhs. I believe this trend will continue.

I consider the scenario of Syria's disintegration, such as the separation of Latakia or Kurdish-controlled areas in northeastern Syria, to be unlikely. One of Jolani's objectives, as stated in an interview with CNN, is to free Syria from foreign presence. I would like to remind you that, apart from the Russians and Iranians, parts of Syrian territory are controlled by Turkey and Israel. The latter entered Syria literally on the day the Bashar Assad regime fell, creating what is referred to as a "security zone." It is evident that the issue of foreign presence in Syria, especially concerning Turkey, can only be resolved after the elections of a new government. It is also clear that no Syrian government will recognize the Golan Heights, Syrian territory occupied and annexed by Israel, as part of the Jewish state. It is difficult to predict the process that will unfold here, but in the initial phase, the rebels will likely refrain from direct confrontation with Israel.

The situation regarding Hezbollah remains uncertain. I assume that Syrians will strive to further weaken Shiite influence in Lebanon and reform Lebanese politics in the spirit of the "Cedar Revolution" of 2005.

Iran, like Russia, is currently one of the main losers. The efforts expended by Moscow to strengthen its geopolitical position in the Middle East have come to naught. This is a crushing geopolitical blow that is likely to undermine the Kremlin's position in the region and is a clear demonstration of Russia's inability to protect its satellites amid massive losses in Ukraine. Tehran, in turn, has lost the so-called Shiite corridor that they have been carefully building since 2015. The defeat of the IRGC's "Quds" expeditionary force will significantly negatively impact the IRGC's position within Iran, which may push moderate forces to reconsider their role within the country. Such a scenario could lead to a split among the elites in Iran and the beginning of the end of Islamist rule.