Wednesday04 December 2024
obkom.org.ua

Trump's election presents opportunities for Ukraine, but we must take five essential steps, says Alexey Golobutsky.

A political expert explained exclusively to "Telegraph" why a Trump victory would have been beneficial for Ukraine.
Избрание Трампа открывает новые возможности для Украины, но необходимо выполнить пять ключевых задач, считает Алексей Голобуцкий.

After Donald Trump's victory in the elections, the Ukrainian authorities need to strive for an agreement on "ending the war in one day", so that this "one day" ultimately works in our favor. From the entire Plan for Victory (which Trump will not read), it is necessary to pivot towards the idea of handing over our resources for joint use with the USA. This is the only thing that might interest Trump.

It is essential to ensure that in a potential agreement with Putin, Trump views support for Ukraine as an achievement, rather than "worthless stocks." This, perhaps, is the most crucial piece of advice.

In the lead-up to the elections, there was a "hype" from our government and experts: if Trump wins, we are in big trouble. Given that our government is highly dependent on public opinion, it is vital to avoid mistakes. I am currently observing what is being said in my social media: there is despair, democracy is in decline, we are doomed, etc.

Let me remind you that Biden spoke of "supporting Ukraine to the end, we are with you in spirit and in every way." And then, at the end of the year, it turns out that we received only 10% of the aid promised. Therefore, the last piece of advice for the Ukrainian authorities is to start focusing more on Europe.

However, Trump's election presents a time of opportunities for Ukraine. Because the stagnation with Biden keeps us "afloat," but does not allow us to turn the tide on the front. The war has now turned into a war of attrition. Gradual, controlled (it can be called differently) escalation is beneficial in a trade war, but when hundreds are killed daily – this cannot last long, and at some point, it will come to an end.

It is clear that Russia is also being drained. It is also good that after a year of such a war, even if it annexes the captured territories of Ukraine, Russia will be so depleted for a considerable time that it won't think about expansion to the West or against NATO for about 7-8 years.

Therefore, Trump's election is a chance for Ukraine. Everyone is starting from a flawed concept that Putin will agree to Trump's terms. But why would he think that Russia would comply? Putin is currently doing quite well. He is constantly advancing, capturing Ukrainian territories.

Then another point comes into play. Trump has already stated that he will get fully involved in the oil dispute. Saudi Arabia is waiting for Trump because he is completely indifferent to all the political issues that divided Saudi Arabia from the USA under President Biden.

Saudi Arabia is also getting involved in this race because it is clear that it will not get $100 per barrel of oil. So, around December, it will start pumping more. The most ironic and tragic aspect of our history is that Biden did not take such seemingly simple steps but still lost the election. He feared that the oil price would rise and jeopardize his chances for a second term.

However, the price of oil will also drop for Russia. This will be a more painful blow than the supply of weapons and everything else that was done for Ukraine. Russia will simply run out of money. This is the business instinct, a normal logic from someone with such a worldview. And Trump has not hidden this.

If Putin does not agree to negotiations, the USA will not trickle weapons drop by drop but will provide them all at once and to the fullest extent. Now, it comes down to specific actions.