Friday27 December 2024
obkom.org.ua

Russia's passivity in the Egyptian conflict is striking. Everyone is rushing toward Trump's inauguration, says Alexey Kush.

Analyst and economic expert Alexey Kush discusses the situation in Egypt and the geopolitical landscape leading up to Trump's inauguration.
Пассивность России в конфликте в Египте удивляет. Все спешат к инаугурации Трампа, отмечает Алексей Кущ.

Meanwhile, the "Muslim Brotherhood" has decided to stir things up in Egypt. If the situation there escalates (which is unlikely) — it would represent a pro-Turkish, Sunni project against Field Marshal and ruler of Egypt, al-Sisi, who, in turn, is pro-American and could even be considered somewhat pro-Israeli (with several clarifications).

If the Muslim Brotherhood manages to seize power in Egypt (I reiterate, the chances of this are extremely low), it would indicate an incredibly complex special operation taking place in Ankara.

Furthermore, it would signify that Erdogan has crossed the point of no return in the Great Game and has launched his project of Ottoman Empire 2.0 based on Sunni Arab-Turkish unity.

Currently, this scenario seems so implausible that it's hard to believe, and even harder to explain logically.

This is because a victory for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt would significantly undermine Israel's successes in Syria.

Thus, it's difficult to accept such a possibility at this time.

It's hard to imagine that Tel Aviv has overlooked a cascading collapse of its interests in Cairo and the simultaneous strengthening of Turkey in two regions – Syria and Egypt.

As of now, this extremely unlikely puzzle is not coming together, but the Middle East has recently been rich with unbelievable events. Especially since a large-scale operation against the Houthis is currently unfolding.

I had warned that they would be next (after Hamas, Hezbollah/Lebanon, and Syria — this is the exact sequence I mentioned, noting that the Houthis would follow). And the attack has begun.

The ground component involves forces from northern Yemen supported by Saudi artillery and financial investments from the UAE. From the air — Israel, Britain, and the USA.

At sea — Britain, the USA, and a group of French naval forces joining them. Thus, on land, Yemenis will fight against each other.

Some with the support of Saudi Arabia, others with the backing of Iran. Meanwhile, the USA and Israel with their allies will strike with precision.

The Western coalition needs to restore safe shipping in the Red Sea and protect Israel from missile attacks by Ansar Allah.

In this context, France's position is noteworthy — it is the only EU country that has joined the operation (in exchange for assistance in regaining control over the African Sahel?).

It is quite striking how passively Russia is behaving. Previously, through its spokespersons, Moscow promised to supply the Houthis with almost hypersonic weaponry. Yet now, there is silence, as if Russia never existed in the Middle East.

Personally, I am "haunted by vague doubts" regarding that so-called Great Agreement. Everything seems to be unfolding according to the notes or "roadmap" within the framework of a "coordinated modality for conflict resolution".

In this context, as indirect confirmation, information from Iran surfaced: a strategic partnership agreement with Russia is forthcoming, but not before February 2025.

Why such a date?

Perhaps December 2024 – January 2025 constitutes a geopolitical window, after which the situation may lead to a global freeze of major conflicts and wars (at least for a couple of years). Therefore, everyone is hurrying.

This is precisely why such a delay in signing the agreement between Russia and Iran is occurring, although this is extremely important for Tehran right now, and Moscow understands this. But Russia is holding back.

It is possible that after the aforementioned dates, when everything will be frozen "by the breath of the Snow Queen," the main geopolitical players will be able to assemble the letters Ж, О, П, and А into the word "PEACE".

And all this will be sealed with agreements on strategic partnerships, each player with their own allies.

For example, Russia — with Iran, just as it managed to do with North Korea as a bonus for assistance in the war.

For now, there is no news on whether Ukraine will receive an additional strategic partnership agreement with the USA akin to those of Taiwan and Israel (in addition to the already signed security guarantees agreement)?

After all, the security guarantees agreement does not exclude the possibility of signing a strategic partnership agreement, for instance, concerning nuclear safety issues in Ukraine.

Are negotiations on this matter taking place with Trump’s team? We will find out soon.