Will U.S. allies pay more for adversaries? The paradoxical logic of Trump - Alexey Kush.
The new philosophy of life for Donald Trump:
America must become the recipient of major global rents and benefits to maintain a high standard of living for American citizens, addressing structural imbalances and deficits in the American economy (primarily trade and budget deficits).
The world should pay America for the right to "be with it," trade with it, and develop alongside it.
America will collect investment, trade, economic, energy, technological, and even human capital rents from its enemies and even more from its allies.
Why will "friends" pay more? Because the "bill" includes security services utilizing America's nuclear shield.
Why will "enemies" pay less? Because they serve as "herders" for the "friends." They "herd" the flock of "geopolitical sheep" into a pen, from which they can be profitably "sheared."
There is a "herder" — the USA, there are "wolves" — enemies, and there are "sheep" — allies.
Thus, it is not America that should expend its geopolitical resources to protect Europe in the context of its confrontation with Russia; rather, Europe should invest its resources in the geopolitical potential of the USA in the context of their confrontation with China.
Only one country does not pay the USA for the "security ticket" — Israel. And under Trump, this "non-payment" will increase even further.
Israel and Jerusalem serve as a messianic anchor point for conservatives raised in the "professional ethics of ascetic Protestantism," as Max Weber described.
This is especially relevant considering the current Protestant-Judaic synthesis within the concept of the "New Zion."
Trump's goal is to create a new American global world-system.
The terms "world-economy," "world-system," and the world-systems approach and analysis were established by such outstanding scholars as Braudel and Wallerstein.
In particular, Braudel identified the following traits of a world-economy — it is an independent cluster of the overall global economic system, capable of being self-sufficient, primarily due to harmonious and effective internal connections and a logical structure.
A distinctive "key" to Wallerstein's concept of world-systems building of large global clusters is the doctrine of hegemony and the Hegemon.
The Hegemon arises and develops based on the special status of the world-system it has built, in which a state with key competitive advantages stands out as the core against its main competitors and rivals.
Wallerstein identified the presence of a super-city as the core or several super-cities as sub-cores as a sign of such a world-system.
The world-system evolves in a center format, which must receive all geopolitical profits and benefits from the broad Oikoumene surrounding the core.
The format of such an Oikoumene is quite branched:
- semi-periphery, whose rights are relatively close to the rights and status of the core;
- raw material resource periphery, which has the protection of the Hegemon but lacks rights to its profits and geopolitical benefits.
Territories in the form of periphery exist in a subordinate state, deprived of rights to independently determine their development strategy.
The function of the periphery is to form concentric circles around the core and strategically protect it.
According to Braudel's definition, the conditions for the inhabitants of such peripheries around the Hegemon resemble Dante's Purgatory or even Hell.
It is noteworthy that many analysts compare the beginning of Trump's second term to President McKinley, who laid the foundation for the new American Empire 1.0 and the principles of American imperialism at the end of the 19th century.
These principles have deep roots in Protestant ethics, the concept of predestination, and original sin, which are transferred from the realm of individual people to the world of individual countries.
Within this framework, the poverty of a specific country, just like the poverty of an individual, is seen as a manifestation of divine rejection, abandonment by God, and sinfulness that cannot be corrected.
Moreover, any attempts at such correction are viewed as opposition to God's will and a risk of losing one's chosen status.
It is well known that McKinley, like Trump, enjoyed almost messianic support from a segment of the US population.
During McKinley's time, Hawaii was annexed (just as Trump is now attempting to annex Greenland), and Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines were brought under control as colonies.
The latter were seized as a result of the Spanish-American War, and later due to the prolonged Filipino-American military confrontation.
McKinley effectively laid the groundwork for US dominance in the global world in the 20th century, which was only strengthened by the outcomes of two world wars and victory in the Cold War.
Here, we should again recall Wallerstein's concept of a separate world-system — its success is aided by the presence of natural or artificial barriers at the border with other competing world-systems.
The costs to overcome these barriers must be sufficiently high to prevent attempts to undermine the competing world-system.
In this context, the USA possesses unique natural defensive barriers for its world-system in the form of three oceans.
The European world-system in the format of the EU and the Eurasian system as a synthesis of China and Russia (this new world-system can conditionally be called the Mongolian Empire 2.0 or a certain reincarnation of the first land-based Eurasian empire of Genghis Khan) do not have such natural obstacles between themselves, and the Baltic-Black Sea geopolitical arc serves as a barrier by involving a number of countries.
This is why both McKinley's strategy and Trump's strategy focus on strengthening US dominance in the Indo-Pacific region, with the Philippines playing a key role in this context.
However, McKinley had a rather weak opponent in the form of a declining Spanish Empire, while Trump faces a growing and powerful Chinese Empire and Chinese world-system.
McKinley is also noted for introducing the "gold standard" for the dollar, which was one of the important steps toward establishing the dollar's status as a global reserve currency.
Trump's current idea revolves around granting the dollar a "digital standard" by combining it with the world of global cryptocurrencies — through the development of stablecoins (USDT).
According to Trump, in the 21st century, the new gold is "digital gold" (not without reason is Bitcoin referred to as "digital gold"). Achieving US leadership in this direction will ensure the dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency throughout the 21st century.
McKinley raised the import tariff to 57%. The same is said by Trump.
The only difference between them is that McKinley moved away from the Monroe Doctrine, which concentrated US interests in the Western Hemisphere, while Trump is effectively returning to Monroe Doctrine 2.0 — "the annexation of Canada," a new policy regarding Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, encroachments on the Panama Canal, etc.
Thus, it is not surprising that Trump promises that the highest mountain in North America — Denali in Alaska, which once bore McKinley's name in honor of the former president and was given the Native American name of the Athabascans "Great," will have its previous name restored.
What also connects McKinley with Trump is a strict protectionism in economic policy.
In this context, Trump will seek to reboot the conditions of the free trade zone with Canada and Mexico, using trade wars to strengthen the American world-system: the annexation of Greenland, just like Hawaii, integrating Canada into the structure of the core of the US world-system, and transforming Mexico into a semi-periphery of the Canadian-American world-system.
Greenland serves as a natural barrier to contain the Arctic expansion of Russia.
Simultaneously, through import tariffs, Trump will aim to win the competitive civilizational struggle against China and turn the EU into a source of "eternal economic and trade rents" in favor of the US to finance this confrontation with the Celestial Empire.
Britain in the Atlantic will also be involved in the structure of the core of the new American world-system, just as Australia in the Indo-Pacific region (with the Philippines becoming a "semi-periphery" of this entity, similar to Mexico).
This world-system can conditionally be referred to as the "New Atlantis."
Its core will include the USA, Canada, Australia, and Britain. The semi-periphery will be formed by Mexico and the Philippines. Donors will be the EU and Japan. The periphery will consist of Latin America. The sacred anchor point will be Israel.
And now we observe not a construct of a global world, but rather a new format of global fragmentation, in which all the laws of world selection and cooperation operate, but within the frameworks of separate world-systems.
Now, rules are observed only within individual mega-clusters.
If your country lies outside such a "taxon," it may be subjected to the most sophisticated tools of non-competitive influence and neocolonialism.