Tuesday21 January 2025
obkom.org.ua

Trump is a chaos generator. He came to disrupt rather than build. However, there's a silver lining for Ukraine, according to Leonid Shvets.

Political journalist and publicist Leonid Shvets shared his views on Trump's policies and his controversial speeches exclusively for "Telegraph."
Трамп создает хаос, разрушая старые порядки. Однако это открывает новые возможности для Украины, считает Леонид Швец.

In the Senate, hearings are underway regarding the appointment of Fox News star Pete Hegseth as head of the Pentagon. The candidate promises that during his tenure in this critical position, he will not abuse alcohol, as he is known to do, and aims to restore a "warrior culture" within the defense department. Hegseth once commanded a platoon, but lacks any other managerial experience. Watching this career rise is both amusing and unsettling.

Listening to Hegseth's words: "We know who the aggressor is, we know who the good guys are," Ukrainians hope that the new American administration will possess the qualities that the previous one lacked, finally putting Russia in its place. "Trump will come and restore order". This desire overshadows other signals that clearly indicate that Trump and order do not mix well. Trump is a generator of chaos and uncertainty. His infamous speech, where he took shots at Panama, Canada, Mexico, and Denmark, while expressing sympathetic understanding towards Russia, is coupled with insulting remarks directed at European leaders and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau by Elon Musk, a seemingly unhinged friend and advisor of the president.

The audacity of the new American leadership's rhetoric is sometimes mistaken for decisiveness, but one should not confuse decisiveness with bullying, which seeks to humiliate while asserting superiority. It’s unclear why the United States, whose advantages are already apparent to all, feels the need for this. Apparently, as is often the case with bullying, this reflects an inferiority complex in those who initiate harassment—a means of self-assertion. Decisiveness is aimed at solving problems, while bullying creates problems for others. So far, Trump has not dared to bully Putin, and it is uncertain whether he ever will.

Trump came to break, not to build. Yet, paradoxically, this can reveal a positive aspect. By dismantling the existing order, which is already proving ineffective, he is testing and stress-testing the international security system, breaking down what must be broken, thus accelerating the inevitable and paving the way for change. The major war in Ukraine has shattered any illusions about the capacity to maintain world order. Restoring it, restructuring it, and establishing new balances is a task that will take years ahead, far exceeding Donald Trump's term and capabilities, and is not relevant for him personally. The historical mission of the 45th to 47th president is to become the very fool who tests how fool-proof the system is, ensuring it is resilient and protected against errors, foolishness, and malicious breaches. The key is that the lessons he imparts lead to the right conclusions.

American political scientist Ian Bremmer states that Trump is less of a leader and more of a victor. He won by exploiting societal divides and will govern not by uniting but by continuing to divide into us versus them, labeling opponents as losers. Ukraine's challenge is to navigate the world of Trump, where the only value is Trump himself, among the winners, not the losers. Zelensky must find common ground with Trump, who dislikes Ukraine, dislikes Zelensky, and is constantly reminded that Ukraine costs America too much. With Trump, who feels an internal kinship with Putin, whose authoritarian tendencies go unopposed by anyone or anything. In such a situation, how can one avoid revealing true emotions or switch to the language that the Ukrainian president has already begun to use with Fico and Orban? The latter, as is known, is regarded by Trump as an exemplary European politician, unlike Mette Frederiksen, who refuses to sell Greenland.

Ukraine irritates because it is currently hyper-sovereign. Facing the threat of annihilation, it fights for itself like no other country has to. Ukraine cries out in pain and demands help, sometimes dropping the ritual polite formalities. Can this not be irritating? It even frustrated the more easygoing and inert Biden.

And isn't it annoying that Ukraine is now more Europe than Europe itself, and more America than America? It alone is currently defending Europe, its values, and upholding its freedom and security, while many in Europe still pretend it doesn't concern them, including the missiles and drones that cross into NATO territory. Ukraine is the only one doing the work that was believed to be possible only for America: waging a real, "kinetic" war with Russia, while Americans continually hold Ukrainians back, fearing they might have to join the fight themselves, whereas Ukrainians openly urge America to be America, not this. "Warrior culture"? Well, well.

The way America and Europe appear pale in this narrative cannot fail to irritate both, just as the realization that the war cannot end without considering Ukraine's position, and that mere words will not compel Russia to stop. Ahead lie years of re-evaluation of who is truly worth what, and years of this undertaking. It is far too early to record results; it is very early. The exclamations that involuntarily escape at this stage, even from political leaders, are signs of a lack of language that would accurately describe the situation. And yet this is just the beginning, even though it seems this war has lasted a thousand years.