Sunday23 February 2025
obkom.org.ua

Trump is upending the international legal system, failing to distinguish between victim and aggressor, says Yevgeny Magda.

Director of the Institute of World Politics, Evgeny Magda, shares insights exclusively for "Telegraph" regarding the phone conversation between Putin and Trump and the conditions for ending the war.
Трамп меняет международное право, не проводя границы между жертвой и агрессором, считает Евгений Магда.

Let's break it down point by point. First, the sequence of negotiations for Ukraine is unfavorable because Trump first speaks with Putin and then with Zelensky. He conveys to him what they have obviously already preliminarily agreed upon with Putin. This position makes us vulnerable, and it will be quite difficult for Ukraine to counter this.

Secondly, the fact that a conversation took place between Trump and Putin legitimizes their contacts. I am confident that these discussions began earlier. Therefore, Trump operates on a business logic, suggesting that, in any case, agreements can be reached, and common approaches can be established—what options do you have when there is a need to reconcile?

This means he does not differentiate between a victim of aggression and the aggressor country. Thus, he effectively overturns the entire system of international law and human rights in favor of Russia.

Thirdly, it is likely that there will be a suspension of the war on terms that align with Russian demands. The position has already been voiced that Ukraine has no place in NATO today, which fully serves Russia's interests. Additionally, Ukraine will not be able to reclaim the territories occupied by Russia. This raises the question of where to find peacekeepers to ensure a sustainable peace. However, it seems to me that Trump will not be concerned about this.

This leads to another point: halting the war without punishing the aggressor essentially encourages aggression. This needs to be understood. It appears that we will not see anything resembling what occurred after 1945. There will be neither the Nuremberg Trials, nor demilitarization, nor denazification. There will be no de-Putinization. Instead, there will be the continued development of Putin's Russia and the perpetuation of existing trends. This will impact one of the European countries, and while it's difficult to predict which one, unfortunately, it is likely to occur with a probability exceeding 95%. We must be prepared for this now; otherwise, it will be too late.