Thursday26 December 2024
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Trump triumphed like a "Servant of the People." Here are six key takeaways for Ukrainians - Vitaliy Chepinoga.

A journalist, blogger, and former member of parliament shares insights exclusively for "Telegraph" on how Trump's victory introduces uncertainty regarding support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, while still offering hope for stability.
Трамп одержал победу, как «Слуга народа». Виталий Чепинога выделяет 6 важных моментов для украинцев.

On November 5, Donald Trump won the 60th anniversary elections and became the 47th president of the United States of America. He is the first U.S. president to win a second term after losing in the previous elections.

But Trump didn't just win. He effectively achieved a supermajority, similar to "Servant of the People" in 2019 in Ukraine. Besides the White House, Republicans also gained a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, controlling the Supreme Court and a significant number of governorships. Additionally, Trump won elections in all swing states.

In light of this, the number of politicians in Europe and Ukraine who claim to have known Trump "since childhood" and always believed in his victory has sharply increased. This is understandable: the U.S. president is such a prominent figure that it is better to maintain good and friendly relations with him.

The first to congratulate Donald, as is customary, was the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban, although Trump once referred to him as the president of Turkey. Just a few minutes after Orban, Trump was congratulated by Volodymyr Zelensky.

After all, Trump is just as important to us as he is to the Americans themselves. The success of Ukraine in its tough struggle against Putin's Russia largely depends on him. For now, Putin is in no rush to congratulate Trump officially on his victory, just in case, as no one knows how things will unfold with this Trump. His behavior is unpredictable, and at this moment, I believe even Trump himself does not have a definitive answer.

What can be stated unequivocally is that it will be interesting, and events will unfold quickly and unexpectedly. The world has entered an era of significant geopolitical turbulence. Any far-reaching predictions about the development of the situation globally are now worth little. The future of this new world can be well explained by universal Ukrainian folk formulas: "Anything can happen" and "Everything is in God's hands."

But for us, of course, the main concern is that these events, turbulence, and upheavals do not cause significant and irreparable harm to Ukraine.

So what should we expect from Trump, considering he once mentioned that Ukraine should accept all of Putin's conditions, and the very next day spoke about how he threatened Putin with a preemptive nuclear strike? Is Trump's victory beneficial or detrimental to us?

Firstly, the President of the United States is the strongest leader. Probably the strongest in the modern world. However! Not stronger than America itself. It is important to remember that in the U.S. there are several checks, balances, and safeguards that prevent the usurpation of power and the making of unilateral, imperative decisions. Therefore, we sincerely hope that in the next four years we will see the position of the United States, rather than Trump’s personal views, including regarding Ukraine.

Secondly, it is genuinely uncertain what position Donald Trump will adopt on the "Ukrainian issue." The Republican Party in the U.S. is quite heterogeneous. On one hand, there are Trump supporters (the so-called MAGA group, which includes various figures led by Elon Musk). But there are also the old "true" Republicans, from the Reagan era, who have always seen and continue to see Russia as an enemy. Moreover, it can be argued that Trump's team currently includes a sufficiently strong and influential "pro-Ukrainian group."

Thirdly, Trump's team also consists of top military weapon manufacturers in the world: Raytheon, which produces the Patriot air defense systems, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman. This is also very important for us.

Fourthly, Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential elections is not a victory for Putin. Putin's goal is chaos in the democratic world. Chaos is his form of survival. He needs the world to be preoccupied with other matters. Therefore, Russia did not support anyone in these elections but hoped for legal wrangling, clashes among supporters, riots, and destabilization. That did not happen.

Fifthly, it should be remembered that it was under the previous Trump administration that Ukraine first received lethal weapons from the United States, including anti-tank Javelins, while his predecessor Barack Obama, during the Crimea crisis and ATO in Donbas, generously offered Ukraine helmets and warm blankets.

And finally, sixthly. After three years of war, we have become a completely different country, a different nation, different people. However, we still have a lot to do to become independent from the outcomes of elections in the U.S., the U.K., and Germany.

Therefore, to the numerous "harbingers of the apocalypse" who claim that Russian tanks will be in Warsaw or Lisbon by tomorrow evening, it is time to calm down. America is still America. Donald Trump will not want to start his presidency with a defeat. Trump will find a common language with Putin, Kim Jong-un, Ali Khamenei, Hamas, and even with Xi Jinping. And these will likely not be pleas. They will be demands or proposals that it would be foolish and shortsighted to refuse.

Trump promised to end the Ukraine-Russia war in a day. But that was the "campaign" Trump, the rhetorical one. Today marks the arrival of the real and pragmatic Trump. The most likely scenario is what analysts refer to as a "frozen" conflict. At least, this is how Richard Haass, an honorary president of the Council on Foreign Relations and someone well-versed in the topic and close to the Republicans, interprets it in a deeply insightful article.

In his first public speech after the election results were announced, Donald Trump stated that his goal is to end wars. But he must realize that to achieve this, it is essential to address the root causes of their emergence. And these causes are not abstract; they have specific names: Putin, Kim Jong-un, Khamenei, etc.

As it became known on the evening of November 6, former British Prime Minister and long-time advocate for Ukraine Boris Johnson flew out to meet Donald Trump. The key topic of discussion, as the ex-PM reported, is Ukraine!

So, don’t rush into a dying pit; no one has left us...