Source: ISW
Quote: "The increase in domestic production of Russian drones such as the 'Shahed' has enabled Russia to boost the number of drones used in strike attacks against Ukraine, but Ukrainian innovations in electronic warfare (EW) allow Ukrainian forces to respond more effectively to Russian drone assaults."
Details: Ukrainian military expert Petro Chernik stated in an interview with ArmyInform that Russia has ramped up the production of airframes for 'Shahed' drones while continuing to rely on Iranian or Chinese imports for other drone components.
Analysts note that Chernik's statements align with ISW's assessment from October 2024 that Russia is utilizing domestic production of 'Shahed' drones to increase the number of drones launched in Ukraine.
This trend is reflected in the composition of strike attacks that Russia conducted against Ukraine in October-November 2024, as it has become more common for Russian forces to launch between 80 to 100 (or more) 'Shahed' and 'decoy' drones in large strike packages.
For example, on the night of December 1-2, Russian troops launched 110 'Shahed' drones and other unidentified drones, likely decoys, against Ukraine.
Experts suggest that Russian forces are likely using a large number of 'Shahed' drones and decoy drones to detect and suppress Ukrainian air defense and mobile fire groups; Russian forces most often launch 'Shahed' drones alongside a more limited number of cruise and ballistic missiles.
However, the report states that Ukraine is providing a worthy response to this influx of drones.
Reports indicate that the number of 'Shahed' or decoy drones that were "lost" (failed to reach their targets - ed.) due to Ukrainian EW measures significantly increased in October and November.
Quote: "Russia launched 105 'Shahed' drones toward Ukraine on October 2, 78 of which were directly shot down by Ukrainian forces, and 23 of them were reported as 'lost' due to EW measures (22%).
In contrast, Russian forces launched 110 'Shaheds' and decoys toward Ukraine on the night of December 1-2, 50 of which were 'lost' due to Ukrainian EW operations (45%), while 52 of them were shot down by Ukrainian forces."
Details: Chernik noted the high rate of Ukrainian aircraft shot down and emphasized that Ukraine has enhanced its EW capabilities to the extent that Ukrainian forces can either "land" 'Shaheds' or cause them to "lose their way" or deviate from their course and enter Russian or Belarusian airspace.
Ukrainian EW measures significantly impact the effectiveness of these Russian strike attacks and, in particular, further burden the joint Russian-Belarusian air defense system.
The independent Belarusian monitoring group "Gaiun" reported on November 25 that 38 Russian drones entered Belarusian airspace on November 24 and 25 - a record number of Russian drones violating Belarusian airspace.
The review notes that Belarus scrambled aircraft in response to the airspace violation. This indicates that Belarus was not prepared to receive lost Russian drones, and that Russia did not anticipate such consequences from Ukrainian EW operations and did not inform Belarus in advance.
Key findings from ISW on December 2:
- Influential figures in the Russian information space continue to promote the narrative that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in resolving the war in Ukraine through negotiations, which would lead to nothing less than Ukraine's complete surrender.
- The ramp-up of domestic production of 'Shahed' drones has allowed Russia to increase the number of drones used in strike attacks against Ukraine, but Ukrainian innovations in EW enable Ukrainian forces to respond more effectively to Russian drone attacks.
- Russian authorities continue to make efforts to minimize the social consequences of the war for the Russian population while covertly redirecting what the Kremlin initially defined as a victory in Ukraine.
- Pro-Kremlin Russian operators of Telegram channels continue to resist the efforts of Russian authorities to de-anonymize their social media accounts.
- Ukrainian forces have advanced near Chasiv Yar, while Russian forces have advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhovo.
- Russian military command is focusing on preparing additional Russian forces and improving the tactical assault operations of its troops.